Seeking Confirmation Is Rational for Deterministic Hypotheses
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Seeking Confirmation Is Rational for Deterministic Hypotheses
The tendency to test outcomes that are predicted by our current theory (the confirmation bias) is one of the best-known biases of human decision making. We prove that the confirmation bias is an optimal strategy for testing hypotheses when those hypotheses are deterministic, each making a single prediction about the next event in a sequence. Our proof applies for two normative standards commonl...
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The tendency to test outcomes that are predicted by our current theory (the confirmation bias) is one of the best-known biases of human decision making. We prove that the confirmation bias is an optimal strategy for testing hypotheses when those hypotheses are deterministic, each making a single prediction about the next event in a sequence. Our proof applies for two normative standards commonl...
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Whether scientists test their hypotheses as they ought to has interested both cognitive psychologists and philosophers of science. Classic analyses of hypothesis testing assume that people should pick the test with the largest probability of falsifying their current hypothesis, while experiments have shown that people tend to select tests consistent with that hypothesis. Using two different nor...
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Econometricians commonly want to confirm some precise hypothesis, such as a consequence of economic theory, an economic hypothesis, or a econometric modeling assumption. In practice, researchers routinely use significance tests that can only fail to reject the hypothesis of interest. Generalizing previous work by Romano (2005), I propose a new theoretical framework for confirmation of multivari...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Cognitive Science
سال: 2011
ISSN: 0364-0213
DOI: 10.1111/j.1551-6709.2010.01161.x